The Leverage Theory of History
Technology, chokepoints, and the rise of artificial intelligence
Archive
2026 AI Predictions
A galaxy brain forecast for the ages
Schleppy AGI
Why powerful AI might arrive sooner than we think
On Randomness
Is the universe, at bottom, random?
Who Controls the Robot Army?
The American founders feared standing armies
How To Forecast AGI
Compute, not intuition, should guide AGI timelines
Are Language Models Human Emulations?
What blackmail behaviors reveal about the nature of LLMs
The Subtext: You Are A Member of A Colony
Why no one is steering this ship
AI Risk and the Banality of Evil
We need safety designs that assume full access to model weights
‘Vibe Coding’ Signals the End of Software Programmers
Synergy or substitute?
When Machines Compete
The darwinian shift reshaping capitalism
OpenAI’s Charter
You may be surprised at their stance on the AGI arms race